Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 60% as Senate window narrows

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 60%, down from 75% set on May 22, citing a narrowing window before the Senate's August recess. The firm had previously raised its estimate from 55% following a May 14 Senate Banking markup. In a note on Friday, Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn said the Senate must act on the market structure bill before a month-long recess that begins in late July. "After that, the window effectively closes," Thorn wrote, adding that major legislation has historically not advanced in the run-up to midterm elections as lawmakers campaign.

The CLARITY Act, which passed the House last year, has cleared both the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees but still requires at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to overcome prolonged debate. Thorn said Majority Leader John Thune "realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July" to allow for floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and subsequent House action. "Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess," he added.

Galaxy also cited a lack of visible progress in negotiations, with provisions on ethics and illicit finance remaining unresolved sticking points. The firm said it would revise its odds upward if Senate leaders commit to passing the bill in July and finalize provisions to win over lawmakers. Galaxy's revision followed comments from analysts at JPMorgan, who said on Wednesday they see less than a 50% chance the bill passes this year, citing a tightening congressional calendar. Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan said on Tuesday that "D.C. insiders" he spoke with put the odds of passage between 5% and 30%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has escalated her public pressure on the legislation, posting at least 15 times on X about it in June. "The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line," Lummis wrote on Sunday. In a CNBC interview on Wednesday, Lummis said lawmakers are still working through ethics and illicit finance issues that could cost the bill support in a floor vote.