CLARITY Act Approval Odds Slip as Senate Banking Committee Pivots to AI Hearing

The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 declined on prediction markets this week as the Senate Banking Committee scheduled a hearing on artificial intelligence. On Kalshi, the odds of the bill passing in 2026 slipped to 48% from 50%, while Polymarket showed the chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 51%, down from 55%.

Shorter-term odds also moved lower. Kalshi listed the probability of passage before August at nearly 26%, and the odds of the bill passing before July at less than 2%. The decline coincides with the Senate Banking Committee's decision to convene on June 11 for a session titled "Hearings to examine AI and the American dream, focusing on promoting innovation, affordability and American dominance."

Senator Cynthia Lummis recently indicated support for a Senate floor vote on the crypto bill before the August recess. The committee's focus on AI policy, however, has added uncertainty to the timeline for digital asset legislation as lawmakers work through a crowded regulatory agenda.

The CLARITY Act is intended to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, defining oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.