Gold Slips Below 200-Day Moving Average Into Bear Market as Bitcoin Edges Higher

Gold fell below its 200-day moving average (200DMA) for the first time since October 2023, dropping beneath $4,300 per ounce and entering bear market territory after declining more than 20% from its January record high of $5,600. A break below the 200DMA, which tracks the average closing price over the previous 200 trading days, is often interpreted as a sign that long-term bullish momentum has weakened and a broader trend reversal may be underway.

The decline follows a rally in which gold surged nearly 200%, climbing from below $2,000 per ounce in October 2023 to a record high of $5,600 in January 2026. Much of that advance was attributed to the "debasement trade," the investment thesis that rising government debt and loose monetary policy would erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies and drive demand for scarce stores of value.

Pressure on gold intensified after a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report on Friday prompted markets to price in a greater likelihood of Federal Reserve tightening. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which would lift the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has also moved back above 100, adding headwinds to commodities and risk assets.

Silver, frequently viewed as a higher-beta version of gold, is testing support at its own 200DMA near $67 per ounce. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold one bitcoin can purchase, has climbed 3% over the past 24 hours to 14.72 ounces as bitcoin ($BTC $62,945.93) recovers toward $63,000. The ratio remains roughly 70% below its December 2024 peak of approximately 41 ounces but is holding above its February lows, having been rejected at its own 200DMA last month in a move that preceded bitcoin's drop below $60,000.