Bernstein Holds $150,000 Bitcoin Price Target for 2026 Despite 27% Year-to-Date Decline

Bernstein is maintaining its $150,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin, arguing that the cryptocurrency's quiet 2026 reflects a maturing market dominated by institutional holders rather than structural weakness. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 27% so far this year, trading just above the $63,000 mark as of writing—down approximately 50% from its October peak. The broader crypto market capitalization sits at roughly $2.25 trillion.

In a research note published Monday, the broker's Global Digital Assets team pointed to a sharp drop in capital flows. Net inflows from exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buyers have fallen to roughly $12 billion year-to-date, compared with $60 billion across all of 2025—an 80% decline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of $2.6 billion from a total asset base of $75 billion. The analysts attributed the pullback to retail investors redirecting enthusiasm toward AI-related stocks, leaving Bitcoin's holder base increasingly concentrated among institutions, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasuries.

Strategy, the software company turned Bitcoin treasury giant, has continued accumulating despite the price decline. The firm raised $7.5 billion through its preferred stock instrument (STRC) this year, using the proceeds to purchase roughly 100,000 Bitcoin. The company now holds more than 845,000 BTC, valued at approximately $53.6 billion. Several Bitcoin mining companies, including IREN and Cipher Digital, have also pivoted toward AI data centers and posted substantial gains as a result.

Bernstein framed the muted retail interest as a positive structural shift. "We believe this maturation phase of Bitcoin is less appreciated, and the criticism has largely come from its lack of retail momentum—which may not be a bad thing considering retail has crowded into AI," the analysts wrote. "Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against it, and does not take away from the long-term 'store of value' thesis, in our view."

Separately, Zcash recouped losses over the weekend after founder Zooko Wilcox unveiled a proposal for an upgrade aimed at restoring confidence in the digital asset's scarcity. The price of ZEC had fallen late last week after Shielded Labs disclosed a critical bug that had allowed the creation of an unlimited number of counterfeit tokens before it was fully patched.