Ethereum-Tether market cap convergence at $186.87 billion could mark turning point for ETH

The market capitalization of Ethereum has converged with that of Tether for the first time, with both assets reaching roughly $186.87 billion, according to on-chain data tracking the ETH/USDT ratio. The ratio, now at 1.03, has touched the support of a descending channel it trades within, a level that has previously marked Ethereum's bottom and preceded a rally. More broadly, the indicator has correctly called Ethereum's turning points on eight occasions, identifying four tops and four bottoms.

Ethereum's market valuation has fallen by $373.83 billion since peaking in September 2025, a drop larger than its present valuation. If the pattern holds, Ethereum could begin a multi-week recovery that recaptures the capital that exited the asset over the past several months, though the broader trend remains dependent on investor behavior.

US trading activity is providing a mixed signal. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the gap between Ethereum's US spot price and its price on Binance, points to strong domestic demand, rising from -0.17 to -0.04 since 28 May. A rise in the index indicates US demand outpacing the global market on Binance. That demand has not extended to US spot Ethereum ETFs, which recorded outflows every trading day between 28 May and the latest session except 4 June, when total net inflow came in at $19.04 million. Spot ETH ETF flows remain only a fraction of total US trading, a disparity that suggests traditional investors are heavily bearish while crypto-inclined investors stay firmly bullish.

On spot markets, buying outweighed selling pressure between 28 May and early June, with more ETH bought than sold. Over the past 48 hours, however, sell pressure has built, with total net flow reaching $113.63 million and sellers now dominating. A correction on 7 June recorded significantly higher net outflows of $111.12 million, compared with $2.51 million recorded at the time of writing on 8 June. How this develops is worth watching, and what comes next for ETH will depend on activity from US investors and the broader investor base alike.