Arthur Hayes sees a "dump then pump" for Bitcoin — once oil forces someone's hand ⛽

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued in a new blog post titled "Reality Test" that Bitcoin's near-term trajectory hinges on oil prices rather than the AI trade that has dominated headlines. Hayes wrote that energy is the cornerstone of all economic activity and that the market is overlooking oil as the primary variable shaping political and economic outcomes, even as investors focus on AI stocks, cryptocurrencies, and interest-rate projections. He noted that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have constrained global energy supply, yet prices have not risen enough to force Iran or the United States into a compromise, producing what he described as a "Goldilocks" standoff in which both sides can maintain tough rhetoric. Hayes said that equilibrium is unsustainable, because rising oil would feed inflation, lift consumer prices, and create political pressure on Iran and on President Trump that would raise the probability of a settlement.

Hayes added that if oil-driven inflation becomes a political liability, Trump could turn his attention to AI by denouncing data center growth, and that the bulk of the liquidity generated recently has been absorbed by the AI boom rather than by crypto. Because AI is now tied to Bitcoin's short-term performance, he argued that a decline in AI valuations would initially drag crypto lower rather than redirect capital into it. He said he has reduced exposure across AI-linked investments and several cryptocurrencies, exiting positions in Hyperliquid [HYPE], Near Protocol [NEAR], Worldcoin [WLD], and Zcash [ZEC] to conserve capital. Despite the defensive positioning, Hayes reiterated his long-term conviction, stating, "I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump."

The post came as Bitcoin fell more than 21% over the prior month to trade at $63,244.44, with the market attempting to hold a possible bottom near $60,000. Separately, market data cited by AMBCrypto showed that the Spot Taker CVD for Bitcoin has not registered the aggressive spot buying typically associated with the strongest bull market phases, instead indicating continued dip-buying demand even as buying momentum has cooled.