SPCX perp sheds 27% while SpaceX IPO books run 4x over, because even synthetic shares get the jitters 📉

SpaceX's initial public offering has drawn roughly $250 billion in investor demand against a $75 billion target, making it approximately four times oversubscribed at a $1.8 trillion valuation with pricing set for Thursday and trading expected Friday at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX, according to Reuters. The oversubscription has fueled analyst speculation that liquidity is being pulled from crypto and equities to fund allocations in what would be the largest public offering on record. "I'm seeing this exactly as the classic pre-mega-IPO liquidity squeeze playing out in real time," Bitrue Research Institute research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima said. "The tanking in crypto and tech stocks right now isn't random, it's the direct 'IPO tax' from SpaceX's record-breaking deal, with pricing tomorrow and trading Friday at $135 for a $1.8 trillion valuation. Oversubscription with massive orders confirms the hype, but that excitement is sucking liquidity out of correlated risk assets today, hitting crypto hardest because it's the most retail-driven and sentiment-tied to growth/tech narratives." Crypto markets have shed more than $180 billion over the past week and US tech stocks have declined on the same timeframe, according to Barchart data cited in the report.

Crypto-native synthetic exposure to the IPO has weakened in parallel. A 5x-leveraged perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid, also tickered SPCX, traded near $157 on Wednesday, down roughly 27% from a mid-May launch price around $216 after briefly reaching about $230. The contract still sits above the $135 fixed offer price, implying a first-day premium near 16%, compared with roughly 60% in May. The product is a cash-settled derivative and grants no claim to SpaceX shares or allocation rights. SpaceX has set the offer price at $135 per share without a price range, leaving the SPCX perpetual as one of the few venues where a SpaceX-linked price is actively moving ahead of listing.

Centralized exchanges have launched their own pre-IPO perpetuals. Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and Bybit all introduced SPCX perpetual futures this month, with Binance's Shunyet Jan noting that the early traction "reflects growing user interest in gaining regulated-style market exposure to high-profile private companies through this native product." Binance's pre-IPO perpetuals have recorded $2.1 billion in cumulative trading volume over 18 days across more than 130 countries since launch, while Hyperliquid's SPCX contract has seen $70 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours. SpaceX's revenue and profitability have increasingly been linked to its Starlink satellite internet unit, and the company has cited a $23 trillion market opportunity it says is ahead for its artificial intelligence offerings.