$BTC Slides to $61.4K as Bears Hold the Reins, Bulls Lurk Near the Sidelines 🐻

Bitcoin [$BTC] dropped 3.9% over the past 24 hours, hitting a local low of $61.4K, as a wave of spot ETF outflows, distribution from short-term holders, and broader risk-off flows pushed the market deeper into a confirmed bearish regime. Strategy disclosed a 32 $BTC sale, its first since 2022, adding to the selling pressure, while AMBCrypto had previously flagged the risk of cascading long liquidations. Bitcoin has now fallen 6.6% over the past week and trades 51% below its all-time high of $126,080.

On-chain and derivatives data tracked by CryptoQuant show a sharp contraction in demand. The firm's composite of long liquidations and spot $BTC demand "recently pointed to the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022," with structurally fewer buyers than a year ago. CryptoQuant's analysts put the realized price, the average cost basis of all market participants, at roughly $53,600, about 13% below recent trading levels around $61,680. "Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle," the firm wrote, noting that the November 2022 FTX-driven bottom briefly pierced the realized price before rebounding. Still, the report cautioned that "a confirmed bear-market bottom or bullish reversal may still take time to develop."

Demand-side signals have turned broadly negative. AMBCrypto's review of Axel Adler Jr.'s impulse metric shows the fast impulse near -90 and the slow impulse at -59, both bearish, with the slow component needing to climb back into positive territory to mark a regime shift. The 30-day net taker volume, positive since March, flipped negative, while Darkfost noted that $BTC exchange flows swung from a weekly outflow of 2,500 $BTC in April to a recent weekly inflow of 2,410 $BTC. The Coinbase Premium Index has also dropped, including a reading of -0.07 cited in coverage from the outlet, reflecting reduced willingness from U.S. investors to pay a premium for $BTC. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only one day of inflows since May 14, resulting in more than $4.8 billion in total outflows, per Farside Investors data, with separate figures citing $5.568 billion in outflows as of the latest report.

Exchange reserves have climbed alongside the sell-off, rising from $237.4 billion around May 15 to roughly $241.4 billion, an increase of about $4 billion in $BTC balances. Bitcoin's market-cap-to-global M2 ratio, tracked by Alphractal, sits at 0.94%, down from a 2% zone that previously marked overheated conditions; analysts suggest the ratio may need to fall further into its historical "blue region" before a durable bottom forms. Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of Strategy, characterized the recent rotation as "capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment."

Macro headwinds are compounding the pressure. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, the fastest annual pace in three years and in line with economist expectations, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive. With realized losses still below prior capitulation levels, CryptoQuant noted that further acceleration in realized losses would be required to "clear the supply overhang necessary to support a durable price recovery."