$BTC Slides to $61.4K as ETFs Bleed, Impulse Flashes Bear, and Half the Supply Sits Underwater 🫠

Bitcoin [$BTC] dropped 3.9% in the past 24 hours to a local low of $61.4K, pressured by heavy spot ETF outflows, a 32 $BTC sale by Strategy, and rising exchange reserves. The asset has now fallen roughly 24% over the past month, sliding from $82,000 in mid-May to $61,336.93 at press time, and is down about 6.6% over the past week. With $BTC changing hands around $61,680, the price is 51% below its all-time high of $126,080. Strategy co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor described the move as "capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment."

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows realized price sitting near $53,600, roughly 13% below current levels. "Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle," CryptoQuant analysts wrote, adding, "In November 2022, the FTX-driven bottom briefly pierced the realized price before a structural rebound." Still, the firm warned, "A confirmed bear-market bottom or bullish reversal may still take time to develop," citing "accelerating contraction in both speculative and apparent spot demand" and "the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022." CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Supply in Loss 7-day moving average has climbed above 50%, a threshold last crossed in November 2022, when $BTC traded below $20,000 after FTX's collapse.

The bearish setup is reinforced by several technical indicators. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that his impulse performance metric's fast component sits near -90, with the slow component at -59, both bearish. The 30-day net taker volume histogram has turned negative after staying in positive territory since March, and analyst Darkfost highlighted that $BTC exchange flows have flipped from a 2,500 $BTC weekly outflow in April to a 2,410 $BTC weekly inflow. The Coinbase Premium Index has slipped to -0.07, signaling weakening U.S. demand, while Alphractal's market-cap-to-global-M2 ratio sits at 0.94%, still above the blue zone that has historically marked bottoms, and down from 2% at the recent top. Bitcoin exchange reserves have climbed from $237.4 billion on May 15 to roughly $241.4 billion.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only one day of inflows since May 14, with cumulative outflows surpassing $4.8 billion, per Farside Investors. Other trackers put the figure at $5.568 billion. Wintermute, the algorithmic trading firm, said there are "no obvious indications that capital is returning," pinning the decline on institutional selling and U.S. ETF withdrawals. Swissblock's Risk Index has climbed toward 100 as price has fallen to about $61,000, with the firm stating, "Selling pressure is being absorbed again. The key now is to look for the first accumulation signals. As long as Risk stays in Capitulation Risk, Bitcoin remains under structural pressure." U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday, the fastest annual pace in three years and in line with economist expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance that could continue to weigh on crypto.