Novogratz Tells The Four-Year-Cycle Boys To Check Their Receipts 🧾

Bitcoin hovered near $62,600 on Thursday, with Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz pushing back against the notion that the four-year cycle still defines BTC's trajectory after a two-week slide that took the asset from $77,000 to below $60,000 before its rebound. Speaking to Anthony Scaramucci on All Things Markets, Novogratz said he never believed BTC should trade on a four-year cycle, a view he attributed as common especially in China and shared by figures including Binance's Richard Teng and former CEO Changpeng Zhao. "These guys include Binance's Richard Teng and CZ," he noted, adding that while price drawdowns can be painful, the process becomes fulfilling and the framework may no longer apply as BTC matures.

Novogratz framed the bullish case in level terms, noting that BTC is trading about 4x above its 2022 lows near $15,000, an outcome gold has yet to match, and remains above Michael Saylor's predicted low of $45,000. He pointed to long-term holders who entered near $8,000 and have not sold even at $126,000, with targets of $300,000 to $400,000. At the same time, he acknowledged weak tape conditions, saying volumes are down 40% and other cryptocurrencies are "way worse," drawing a parallel to past AI-driven blow-offs. Peter Schiff, meanwhile, has continued to predict a drop to $20,000.

The macro backdrop offered a modest tailwind. Wednesday's inflation report showed headline CPI up 0.5% on the month and 4.2% year over year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, driven by a 3.9% monthly surge in energy that accounted for more than 60% of the increase amid rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month against a 0.3% forecast and 2.9% annually, giving the Federal Reserve room to characterize the pressure as narrow. Traders are now looking to the Fed's June 17 meeting, where markets expect no change to rates.

Bitcoin led the majors on the bounce, with $BTC up 2.5% over 24 hours to roughly $62,600, per CoinDesk data, and holding its 200-week average while slipping less than 1% over the past seven days. The rest of the top tokens remained deep in the red on the week: $ETH was off about 6.5% near $1,651, $XRP down 7.5% near $1.12, $SOL down 7.4% around $65, and $DOGE off 7%, while $BNB held up better at a 2.1% weekly loss. On-chain tracker Lookonchain reported that trader James Wynn closed short positions on Bitcoin and $SOL for a profit of $6,400, then opened a 40x leveraged $BTC long worth $373,000 and a 25x leveraged $ETH long worth $8,500.

Separately, attention turned to the public offering of Elon Musk's SpaceX, which is expected to price later Thursday and begin trading Friday at a reported $1.8 trillion valuation, with shares already four times oversubscribed and some single bidders offering as much as $10 billion, according to Bloomberg.